United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has recently published its Emissions Gap Report, 2020. The annual report from UNEP measures the gap between anticipated emissions and levels consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting global warming this century to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.
The much-awaited report observed that there is no significant decrease in human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) and the year 2020 would be the warmest year on record accompanied by wildfires, storms and droughts.
Key findings of the report reveal the intensity of climate change. They are mentioned below :-
- Record high GHG emissions: Global GHG emissions continued to grow for the third consecutive year in 2019, reaching a record high of 52.4 Gigatonne carbon equivalent (GtCO2e) without land-use change (LUC) emissions.
- Record carbon emission: Fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (from fossil fuels and carbonates) dominate total GHG emissions including LUC that is 65 per cent and consequently the growth in GHG emissions. Preliminary data suggests that fossil CO2 emissions reached a record 38.0 GtCO2 in 2019.
- Forest fires increasing GHG emissions: Since 2010, GHG emissions without LUC have grown at 1.3 per cent per year on average, with preliminary data suggesting a 1.1 per cent increase in 2019. When including the more uncertain and variable LUC emissions, global GHG emissions have grown 1.4 per cent per year since 2010 on average, with a more rapid increase of 2.6 per cent in 2019 due to a large increase in vegetation forest fires. LUC emissions account for around 11 per cent of the global total, with the bulk of the emissions occurring in relatively few countries.
- G20 countries account for bulk of emissions: Over the last decade, the top four emitters (China, the United States of America, EU27+UK and India) have contributed to 55 per cent of the total GHG emissions without LUC. The top seven emitters that include the Russian Federation, Japan and international transport have contributed to 65 per cent, with G20 members accounting for 78 per cent. The ranking of countries changes dramatically when considering per capita emissions.
- Is the GHG emission rate slowing? There is some indication that the growth in global GHG emissions is slowing. However, GHG emissions are declining in Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies and increasing in non-OECD economies. Many OECD economies have had a peak in GHG emissions, with efficiency improvements and growth in low-carbon energy sources more than offsetting the growth in economic activity. Despite improving energy efficiency and increasing low-carbon sources, emissions continue to rise in countries with strong growth in energy use to meet development needs.
- On consumption-based emissions: There is a general tendency that rich countries have higher consumption-based emissions (emissions allocated to the country where goods are purchased and consumed, rather than where they are produced) than territorial-based emissions, as they typically have cleaner production, relatively more services and more imports of primary and secondary products. In the 2000s, the gap between consumption and production was growing in rich countries but stabilised following the 2007–2008 global financial crisis. Even though rich countries have had higher consumption-based emissions than territorial-based emissions over the last decade, both emission types have declined at similar rates.
- Impact due to the pandemic: CO2 emissions could decrease by about 7 per cent in 2020 (range: 2–12 per cent) compared with 2019 emission levels due to COVID-19, with a smaller drop expected in GHG emissions as non-CO2 is likely to be less affected. However, atmospheric concentrations of GHGs continue to rise.
- Which sector reported the lowest dip in emission due to pandemic? The reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 due to COVID-19 is likely to be significantly larger than the 1.2 per cent reduction during the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Studies indicate that the biggest changes have occurred in transport, as COVID-19 restrictions were targeted to limit mobility, though reductions have also occurred in other sectors.
- What about other GHGs (excluding carbon dioxide) level? Although CO2 emissions will decrease in 2020, the resulting atmospheric concentrations of major GHGs (CO2, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)) continued to increase in both 2019 and 2020. Sustained reductions in emissions to reach net zero CO2 are required to stabilise global warming, while achieving net-zero GHG emissions will result in a peak then decline in global warming.
- Are countries on track to attain net zero level? At the time of completing this report, 126 countries covering 51 per cent of global GHG emissions have net-zero goals that are formally adopted, announced or under consideration. If the United States of America adopts a net-zero GHG target by 2050, as suggested in the Biden-Harris climate plan, the share would increase to 63 per cent.
Rapid increase in temperature and climate change is a threat to the ecology. An estimated temperature rise in excess of 3°C this century is observed. This could cause catastrophic weather-related events around the world. The levels of ambition in the Paris Agreement still must be roughly tripled for the 2°C pathway and increased at least fivefold for the 1.5°C Pathway.
UN Experts believe the way to avoid it is encourage green recovery for countries facing Covid-induced economic slumps. A green recovery involves investment in zero emissions tech and infrastructure, reducing fossil fuel subsidies, stopping new coal plants, and promoting nature-based solutions, according to the UN. Such actions could cut 25% of predicted emissions by 2030, and give the planet a 66% chance of keeping warming below the 2°mark that the Paris pact had set as a long term goal.
