The Quad, QDS or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is an informal strategic assembly between four nations – The United States, India, Australia and Japan. The forum was initiated as a dialogue in 2007 by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan, with the support of Vice President Dick Cheney of the USA, Prime Minister John Howard of Australia and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India, and is maintained by meetings that occur on a semi-regular basis. The dialogue was paralleled by joint military exercises of an unprecedented scale, titled Exercise Malabar. It existed officially from 2007-2008, after which it was partially dissolved due to the Australian withdrawal from this forum under Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. However, it was re-established in 2017, during the ASEAN Summits, with all four former members rejoined in negotiations to revive the quadrilateral alliance.
A BRIEF HISTORY BEHIND THE FORMATION OF THE QUAD
The Democratic Peace Theory states that democratic countries around the world are hesitant to engage in open conflict with one another. The initiation of an American, Japanese, Australian and Indian defense arrangement was based on the underlying concept of the Democratic Peace Theory. The idea behind this initiation is credited to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Quadrilateral was supposed to establish an “Asian Arc of Democracy”. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue was originally initiated in 2007 as a forum for dialogue, information exchanges, and military drills between involved nations.
Fears over Chinese military spending and missile capacities had helped drive Australia towards a defense agreement with the United States. Chinese ire over the Quadrilateral agreement, however, caused disquietude within Australia even before the agreements were initiated.
India was not a part of this forum from the get-go. Initially, it was Australia, Japan and the USA, and they made up the The Trilateral Strategic Dialogue or the TSD. The TSD was a series of trilateral meetings between the United States, Japan, and Australia. The TSD originally convened at senior officials level in 2002, then was upgraded to the ministerial level in 2005. The United States government expected regional allies to help facilitate evolving US global strategies and international defense policies to fight against fundamentalism in this region and nuclear proliferation. In exchange for their continued cooperation and support of American regional policies, Japan and Australia expected benefits like continued US strategic involvement and the maintenance of strategic guarantees in disturbed areas of the region.
Active US-Indian military cooperation expanded in 1991 following the economic liberalization of India. This cooperation further expanded in the mid 1990s under the Indian National Democratic Alliance government, and in 2001 India offered the United States military facilities within its territory for offensive operations in Afghanistan. India and the United States conducted dozens of joint military exercises in the subsequent years preceding the development of a Quadrilateral dialogue, the very same one proposed by Shinzo Abe.
In early 2007, Prime Minister Abe proposed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quadrilateral Initiative”, under which India would join a formal multilateral dialogue with Japan, the United States and Australia. In February 2008, following his nomination as Australian prime minister, Kevin Rudd asked the Australian foreign minister to unilaterally announce Australia’s departure from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Australia’s decision to not trade in uranium with India further weakened Quadrilateral alliances.
During the 2017 ASEAN Summits, however, all four former members rejoined in negotiations to revive the quadrilateral alliance. In November 2017 Japanese, Indian, Australian and American diplomats met to continue security cooperation ahead of the ASEAN and East Asia Summits. The four nations gave shape to the long-pending “Quad” Coalition to develop a new strategy to keep the critical sea routes in the Indo-Pacific free of any influence, specifically that of China.
WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THE QUAD AND HOW WILL IT HELP INDIA?
The idea behind establishing this forum was to ensure regional stability, cooperation among neighbors and support for American strategic and diplomatic policies in the South-east Asian region. However, another reason for forming this forum was to counter the threat posed by China and their aggressive expansionist policies. China’s unilateral assertion on the Nine-Dash Line in the South China Sea, fast warship building, its first overseas base in Djibouti, and its surface and subsurface activities in the Indian Ocean beyond the Malacca Straits have alarmed regional powers like India and Japan about an increasing Chinese ambition, fueled by aggressive Chinese military policies and deployment.
A rising and aggressive China, necessitates a stronger and more robust US-India bilateral relationship. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has shown vocal support for India in the face of Chinese aggression on its northern borders. Strategic relations with the Quad, including a Free Trade Agreement, are in India’s best interest to counter Chinese assertiveness and secure its vision for the Indo-Pacific. India has been cautious to maintain status quo with China, particularly following the Wuhan Summit. However, increased Chinese assertions of power in the region have created a need to revive the Quad.
Moreover, the coronavirus pandemic has exacted a heavy toll on the global economy, including the four Quad nations in various sectors, ranging from employment to investments. Thus, deepening their economic and diplomatic relationships for increased freedom and cooperation will facilitate a swifter recovery from the pandemic’s impact, making sure that the economy is put on the fast-track for recovery. But economic freedoms enjoyed by businesses and corporations in these countries are immensely mismatched. While the nation of Australia is considered the fourth freest world economy by the 2020 Index of Economic Freedom, Japan and the U.S. are ‘mostly free’ by the same metric and India is considered ‘mostly unfree’. On top of these concerns, escalating tension between the USA and China has American companies concerned about their manufacturing and labor costs, as well as relocation logistics. Their supply chains are currently largely dependent on China, which American corporations are trying to diversify on account of the growing tensions between these two countries. Although India is attractive as an alternative manufacturing hub, its relatively lower economic freedom and some restrictive policies are a hindrance to this.
The outbreak of COVID-19 followed by China’s assertive global posture has resulted in a flurry of meetings and discussions particularly among the Quad countries. A recent teleconference with senior officials from the Quad countries on how to respond to the pandemic also included three additional Indo-Pacific powers, namely New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam.
There has been some skepticism to the idea of revitalizing the Quad, in spite of its arrangement with the current needs of the region. As Quad countries value their diplomatic flexibility, they fear that a military agreement will ultimately hinder their ability to carry out independent negotiations with China. However, the advantages of free trade between these nations go beyond strategic advantages. As the world reels from the impact of the pandemic and the global economy shifts towards greater protectionism, a Free Trade Agreement between Quad nations would also improve their place in the global value chain, thus improving economics and providing better financial stability to this region as a whole.
INDIAN MEMBERSHIP AND ROLES IN OTHER FORUMS AND SUMMITS
Apart from the Quad membership, India is also a member of other forums like BRICS and SAARC.
BRICS is the acronym which is used to signify an association of five major developing national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The BRICS members are known for their momentous influence on regional affairs, especially in the South-East Asian region. Since the year 2009, these five nations have met annually at formal summits. Brazil hosted the most recent 11th BRICS summit on 13–14 November, 2019. In the beginning, the first four were grouped as “BRIC” (or “the BRICs”), before the inclusion of South Africa in 2010. Members of G20, as of 2018, these five nations had a combined nominal GDP of USD 18.6 trillion, about 23.2% of the gross world product, a combined GDP (PPP) of around USD 40.55 trillion (32% of World’s GDP PPP), and an estimated USD 4.46 trillion in combined foreign reserves. Since 2012, the BRICS group of countries have been planning an optical fibre submarine communications cable system to carry telecommunications between the BRICS countries, known as the BRICS Cable. Part of the motivation for the project was the spying of the National Security Agency on all telecommunications that flowed across the US. In August 2019, the communications ministers of the BRICS countries signed a letter of intent to cooperate in the Information and Communication Technology sector. This agreement was signed between the five nations at the fifth meeting of BRICS, which was held in Brasilia.
The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia. Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Founded in 1985, this organization of South Asian countries is based in Kathmandu, Nepal. The organization promotes development of economic and regional integration. Officially, the union was established in Dhaka with Kathmandu being the union’s secretariat-general. The first SAARC summit was held in Dhaka on 7–8 December, 1985 and hosted by the President of Bangladesh Hussain Ershad.
QUAD MEETING 2020
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met his American counterpart, Mike Pompeo, on the sidelines of the Quad ministerial meeting on October 6. Foreign ministers of India, US, Japan, and Australia will meet in Tokyo to participate in the second QUAD security dialogue. Jaishankar, along with other foreign ministers, met Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga during his two-day visit and spoke about the bilateral and global dimensions of the “special partnership.” The Quad meeting once again reiterated its support for the centrality of ASEAN and ASEAN-led mechanisms in the region. A core outcome of the meeting was highlighted by the statement of the Ministry of External Affairs on the relevance of a “free, open, prosperous and inclusive” Indo-Pacific where countries furthered their “shared values and respect for international law”.
The exit of Shinzo Abe from the political stage may be construed as likely to have a grave impact on negotiations, but this might not be the case. Japan’s commitment to the importance of its special defense relations with the USA will remain in place. Moreover, the question of Japan becoming a ‘normal’ state was in discussion prior to Shinzo Abe’s leadership.
The main issue that needs to be addressed in this year’s Quad meeting is the effort to address the stability of regional and global supply chains that are affected by the pandemic. China holds primary importance as the leading player in global supply chains. On 1 September 2020, three countries among the Quad – Australia, India and Japan, set up the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative to look at options to diversify the uninterrupted movement of goods. The meeting is also expected to look at a post-Covid global order and the challenges that will emerge from it. Even as the US is grappling with a steadily mounting death toll due to the pandemic, with their President in hospital with Covid-19 and prepares for a bitterly contested election next month, the challenge of maintaining its primacy will remain critical.
In conclusion, with the threat of China looming large on the horizon, it is absolutely necessary to build a strong economic and diplomatic foundation among the Quad nations to set up a better supply chain system, with India being the main hub for manufacture and distribution.
